Rice futures were trading around $18 per hundredweight, not far from a nearly three-year high of $18.5 scaled on May 12th, as tighter supply challenges persist. Fitch Solutions recently predicted that the rice shortfall for the 2022/2023 season will be the largest in two decades, primarily due to unfavorable weather conditions in key rice-producing countries like China and Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Indian monsoon rainfall in 2023 is anticipated to fall within the normal range but there is a 90% chance of an El Nino weather pattern developing, which could lead to reduced rainfall and adversely affect rice production. On the flip side, the extension of the Black Sea grain deal by two months provided temporary relief to prices since rice has been used as a substitute for other major grains amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Also, the USDA expects a 20% surge in US rice production in the 2023/24 season. Globally, production is seen rising 2% to a record of 520.5 million tons.
Historically, Rice reached an all time high of 24.46 in April of 2008. Rice – data, forecasts, historical chart – was last updated on June of 2023.
Rice is expected to trade at 17.98 USD/CWT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 18.88 in 12 months time.
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